公共心と支払い意志
海の生態系サービスの保全のかかわる費用を支払う意志の高さにかかわる心理的な要因は何かという論文が発表されました、Wakita et al. (2019): Exploring the effect of psychometric variables on willingness to pay for marine ecosystem service: A survey in Japan. Ecosystem Services, 130-138.
生態系サービスの保全について、いくらぐらいお金を払うかというのを、アンケート調査で個人別に調べて、支払意志額の高い人はどんな人なのかを調べたという話なのですが、様々な個人の属性を調べた結果、結論は、利益を個人的の独占しようとしたり、他人の努力にタダに利したりしないで、社会全体の利益に貢献しようとする、公共心の強い人なのだという、なんだか、調べなくてもわかりそうな結論なのですが、公共心が圧倒的に大きな要素なのだというところが面白いところです。知識、年齢、収入そういうものにくらべて、ほぼ絶対的なほどに必要な要素なのです。つまり、こういうことに必要なのは、公共心の涵養であって、知識の普及は二の次なのです。関係性価値を求める心理なのかもしれません。よく考えると含蓄のある結論になっています。今のところ、この調査は日本でしか行われていませんが、これがきかっけで、世界中で行われることになるかもしれません。
分析法は、比較的単純で、Rを使っています。工夫があるのは２つで、１つは選択的コンジョイント分析から、条件付きロジットモデルに持って行かずに、選択の仕方から選択の優先順位をつけて、順序ロジットに持って行っているところです。それによって、個人が何にどのくらい払うのかがわかり、階層的なクラスター分析が使えます。この工夫をしないと、EMアルゴリズムを組み込んだ潜在クラスモデルでやることになって、高いソフトを使って時間をかけてやらざるを得ません。また、階層クラスター分析なので、あらかじめクラスターの数に関する情報がない時にも使えます。仮説検証的にやるのであれば、潜在クラス分析はありですが、探索的に分析するにはこちらの方が良いでしょう。次に、各クラスター間の差を検出するのに、MCMCを使っています。たかだか平均値の差の有意性を論ずるのにMCMCを使うのは少し大げさなような気がしますが、普通に分散分析でやった場合、もともと分散が大きいから、過分散のために有意差がでないのかもしれないという疑念（分散分析について回る、分散分析的に有意差の存在が否定されても、それは分散が大きいためで差がないとは言えないという古典的な問題）を理屈の上では回避しています。
あまり、専門家らしい分析ではありませんが（著者の大部分は消費者分析の分野の素人）、それなりに論理的な工夫があって、簡単で面白い分析になっています。
分析上の技術的な工夫と論理は、他の分野でも使えると思います。
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公共心と支払い意志 | future fisheries
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