新型コロナ肺炎の制御
1月の末になって、また中国武漢肺炎の感染が拡大しはじめて、Go to キャンペーンをどうするのかという議論がやかましい。新しい感染症はその正体がわからない。ウィルスが変異したり、人の行動が変化したり、有効な治療法が出て来たり出てこなかったりするから、はっきりと将来を見通せない。こういう見通しの悪い場面で何をどう判断するかというのが知恵であり、それが出来る人が賢い人なのだが、賢い人がいない。テレビなどに出てきて利いた風なことを言っている連中は全くの役立たずだ。感染拡大の防止を優先すべきか、経済の維持を優先すべきか、どちらの立場に立つにしても、２者択一的ではなくて、その時点においてどちらを優先すべきなのかという議論でなければ建設的ではない。つまりある時点の状況をどのように判断するかということをその判断根拠とともに示さなければならない。何をすれば将来どうなるのかを見通せればよいのだが、未知の新しい感染症がどうなるかなどということは、まさに「神のみぞ知る」ことであって、それを「科学的」論じてみたところでその辺の占い師の予言程度の正確さしかない。こういう場面では、水産屋の知恵が役に立つかもしれない。
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